Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Effects on Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Habitat Suitability in South America

Many aquatic species have restricted dispersal capabilities, making them the most vulnerable organisms to climate change and land use patterns. These factors deplete Nymphaea species’ suitable habitats, threatening their populations survival. In addition, are poorly documented, which may indicate how scarce they or will become. Members of ecologically important as well having cultural economic value, conservation interest. Therefore, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach, climatic variables, use, presence points were modeled for seven in South America, three general circulation models (CCSM4, HADGEM2-AO, MIROC5) two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 8.5) scenarios (2050 2070). Our results indicated that mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation wettest month (bio13), temperature seasonality (bio15), (dom_lu) main influencing factors. For all species, areas concentrated east Brazil, variable northern parts continent. Besides, inconsistent expansion contraction habitats noticed among species. example, N. amazonum, rudgeana, lasiophylla future habitat expansions declined increased, while ampla jamesoniana, both pulchella rudgeana it varied RCPs. Moreover, largest projected outside protected areas, characterized by high human impacts, despite our analysis indicating no significant between unprotected change. Finally, understanding affect distribution is critical developing measures